For 2014, globally, there was mainly two global class press, which came out with a Bearish assessment for Thailand being Bloomberg and Barrons, a few months after the coup, citing a variety of factors. Meanwhile, Mark Mobius and Morgan Stanley, along with news service such as CNBC, went hyper Bullish on Thailand, to the extent of supporting the oppressive Thai coup and Thailand’s Dictator, saying Thailand’s GDP will recover after the coup and the stock market attractive. Last week many Thai units cut Thailand’s GDP estimate again, this time to below 1% for 2014. Meanwhile, Thailand’s stock market, had been hovering about 1550 to 1600 index level, for most of the past 6 months.
Bloomberg on 4 NOV 27, 2014 reports, (source) in an article titled “Thailand’s Revival Are Greatly Exaggerated” said tentative signs of an economic rebound hardly resolve the deep structural problems that continue to afflict its politics, economy and society, and citing World Bank that thinks Thailand will remain the slowest-growing economy in Southeast Asia through 2016.
Blomberg says it’s too late for Thailand to regain low-end manufacturing jobs, which have shifted to cheaper neighbors. To move up the value chain, the country needs to invest in education, research and development, and infrastructure — something juntas have proved no better than civilian governments at doing. Plans to spend $60 billion on transportation infrastructure during the next 10 years will help but not immediately and not enough. Bloomberg also cited high house-hold debt.
Lastly Bloomberg cited Thai politics, saying: “Nor does the military’s road map for returning power to civilians inspire confidence. Early drafts suggest that the proposed political reforms will be designed not to heal Thailand’s divides, but to ensure that followers of exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra cannot return to power through elections.”